Under the impact of tariffs, blank sailings have reached a record high — Freight rate trends for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.

According to the latest data from consulting firm Project44, as demand on the China–U.S. route declines, the number of blank sailings has surged to a record high - 67 sailings from China to the U.S. and 71 from the U.S. to China. In addition, the number of blank sailings in October is expected to exceed levels seen at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysts pointed out that these figures have surpassed the previous pandemic peak, highlighting the severe impact of the recent tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration on maritime trade.

Since the beginning of this year, the number of blank sailings has continued to rise, particularly on trade routes most affected by tariffs. Although weekly or monthly freight volumes fluctuate sharply with changes in import tariff costs, the overall net trade volume remains roughly the same as last year. Project44 predicts that the shift in sourcing away from high-tariff countries such as China may take several years to fully materialize. At present, the overall trade balance between East and West remains largely unchanged, with tariff costs being shared among manufacturers, importers, and end consumers.

According to data from Project44, the most affected routes include the U.S. West Coast–Southeast Asia route, where the number of blank sailings has surged by 75% year-on-year. Meanwhile, blank sailings on the China–U.S. West Coast and Southeast Asia–U.S. West Coast routes have increased by 46.5% and 40.7%, respectively. These figures indicate that shipping lines are managing capacity to cope with weak demand and to adapt to market uncertainty.

Bart De Muynck, a senior supply chain analyst and former Gartner research director, noted:

"The intensity of blank sailings has now reached its highest level since the early days of the pandemic. However, the focus of this strategy has shifted from crisis response to maintaining rate stability in a tariff-distorted market."

The U.S.–China trade relationship has been hit particularly hard. Compared with 2024, U.S. imports from China have fallen by 27% so far this year, while exports to China have dropped even more sharply-by 42%. After a slight increase in January and February, import volumes plummeted: down 38% in April, 46% in May, and 41% in September. Exports have remained in negative growth, plunging 57% in April and dropping 53% in both May and August.

Despite sharp fluctuations in trade volumes on specific routes, the overall country composition of U.S. imports and exports has changed little, suggesting that most U.S. companies have yet to make major adjustments to their sourcing channels or customer bases. However, Project44 data shows early signs of supply chain diversification-monthly exports from Indonesia and Thailand to the U.S. have increased by 11% to 81% compared with the same period in 2024.

Facing ongoing challenges in the shipping industry, Project44 concludes:
"Rather than reshaping supply chain structures, tariff policies are having a greater impact on freight timeliness and reliability."
Nevertheless, the firm emphasized that the industry's outlook for 2026 remains highly dependent on future tariff decisions and trade negotiations.
Freight Rate Outlook: Q4 2025 – Q1 2026
Following the surge in blank sailings, freight rates between China and the United States are expected to remain unstable in the coming 3–6 months. Carriers are likely to continue reducing sailings to balance weak demand, which may temporarily support spot rates through the end of 2025.
In the short term, rates on the China–U.S. West Coast route may stay firm due to limited space and higher operating costs, but a sustained upward trend is unlikely without a recovery in cargo volume. By early 2026, as additional capacity returns after the Lunar New Year and inventory restocking slows, rates are expected to gradually decline.
Conversely, on the U.S.–China route, export freight rates will likely remain under pressure because of low export demand and equipment shortages. Shipping lines may introduce temporary surcharges to offset rising costs, but overall rate levels will depend on trade policy developments and consumer demand recovery.
Overall, transpacific freight rates in late 2025 and early 2026 will fluctuate within a narrow range, shaped by tariff policies, capacity management, and seasonal demand shifts. Unless tariffs are eased or demand rebounds significantly, the market is expected to stay volatile with limited pricing visibility.